Wednesday 7 February 2007

Four Pillars of Indian Farm Exit Policy

Much fuss is being made in India, of the letter written by the UPA chairperson, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, to Shri Manmohan Singh regarding the major news of Walmart entering India in partnership with Indian industrialists without a footprint in retail.

The "language of the open letter", billed of course as only the third major intevention of Mrs Gandhi in issues of governance, of course, shows that Mrs Gandhi has all along been in the dark, about this major reorganization of retail sector in India, being considered by the Agriculture and Commerce ministries, with the green signal from Prime Minister, under the garb of inviting investments into Indian agriculture and propelling the Second Green Revolution in India.

Of course, the issue of on whose weak backs, the second Green Revolution will play itself out, is a moot question. One best answered - by a much delayed and avoided like the cow dung of villages - visit to farmer organizations in Vidarbha and Indian killing fields by the masters of Indian economic tiger.

And why, not afterall, all serious economists are busy churning out the percentage figures of Indian GDP, and wondering if it will hit double figures.

Of course, different people will have different perceptions about the knowledge or ignorance of Mrs Gandhi, about the entry, of American and European major retailers into India, either directly, or on the backs of a facilitating joint venture entity with Indian non retail players, in the absence of WTO globally binding agreements.

Food Retail is the big sunrise sector in India, and promises major electoral battles, in the coming years, as masses of populations, in Indian cities and villages are displaced and forced into unplanned economic restructuring of epic proportions.

Like the Roman Nero, who fiddled while Rome burned, or the Shatranj ke Khiladi of Awadh, even though the Communists are busy saving the navratnas, and prefer to ignore the issues of eviction of sharecroppers from Bengal farmlands, and make their routine "oh, this is not right", exclamations in New Delhi.

Let us for the while, believe with all due innocence, that Mrs Gandhi has no role at all to play in the decisions regarding entry of single brand global majors into Indian food sector.

What I wish to draw attention to, is the language of the letter from Mrs Gandhi.
Mrs Gandhi writes "...I have received suggestions from many quarters, about the desirability to first study, the possible impact, of transnational, super markets on livelihood security, of those engaged in small scale operations. I thought I would convey this to you so that, you may consider having the relevant issues properly examined before further decisions are taken..."

Although WalMart has entered the wholesale sector, which allows 100 per cent FDI, we all know from the Tesco strategy, of entering the Chinese food retail market, via a joint venture Ting Hsin, to understand and influence local agricultural practices, that this is the means of actually directly pegging its own brand in the Indian retail space.
We all know that no global major, wants to enter the Chinese or Indian markets, only for the wholesale pie.
It is the retail pie that all global majors and the Indian new entrants like Reliance are after, let us be under no illusions about this.

It seems that with her European lineage, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, well understands, what the Europeans and Americans want from India and are drumming up pressure for.
This is a major reversing of the national food security generated by the agriculture policies of her mother in law, Mrs Indira Gandhi.

Major industrial economies, after years of low cost Chinese inputs, are now beginning to feel the impact of incipient inflation in their local economies and stagnating growth in the consumer markets.
Mrs Gandhi is believed to have asked for the details of the Bharti WalMart contract and wants top ministries to gauge its impact on small-scale retailers.
Top ministries ?
Ah, have a guess, what are these "top ministries" ? Any guesses ? It is those of Shri Sharad Pawar, Mr Chidambaram and Shri Kamal Nath.
These are the movers and shakers aka, top ministries.

In this context, I also want to point out that Mrs Gandhi has raised this issue only in the context of the small traders. Are not the Indian farmers also to be included in the blessings that are about to be coming the way of small traders, after this intervention of Mrs Sonia Gandhi in this most important of Indian economic developments since the Green Revolution ?
Watch this blog for more on what are the Four Pillars of the undeclared Indian Farm Exit Policy.

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