Humpty Dumpty Agricultural Strategy

Dry Cow Therapy, Rural Distress, Indian Economists : New Agriculture Strategy
From Second Green Revolution to Milking the Cow Dry -

The concerned Indian Prime Minister, has been left searching for the right answers from all the agricultural experts, while his own Agriculture Minister ignores the suicides from his home state and manages the strings of the Indian cricket team, a job no doubt he loves more than finding answers to the task entrusted to him as Indian Agriculture Minister - saving farmers from rural distress.
Another case of Humpty Dumpty on the rural front, as Indians get busy with cricket season.
Even the Indian Sensex Minister is now feeling short changed, by the massive imports bills, deposited on his doorsteps, on the food front, which threaten to blow a hole through his economic strategy of industrial development and growth in Services sectors.
Soon after suggesting budgetary support and subsidies for sugar exporters, the Agriculture Minister has gone ahead on a global buying spree for wheat. He just does not seem to like Punjabi and Haryanvi wheat. It is not tasty enough for him or maybe a trifle too full of pesticides for even his liking.
In a bid to wash off the spots on the UPA governments Three Year Achievements, and what even the lacklustre opposition performance by the NDA could not accomplish, is being accomplished in the rural fields of Vidarbha and West Bengal.
Understandably, genuine Congress election strategists are worried.
Let us examine the content of the Prime Minister's concern about Indian rural distress, worded as it is in very general terms and coming on the heels of the three years of crowning achievements of the Central ruling UPA coalition and the electoral losses in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.
In his directions to Planning Commission, Finance Minister and Cricket Minister he has pointed out :
1. Poor growth in farm output, at approximately 2%, is the main cause of agrarian and rural distress
2. There is need for focussing on short and medium term strategies for raising farm output
3. Burden of blame must be strategically be shared with states, as according to his understanding, the Central UPa government is having to face too much unnecessary criticism as being the most responsible player in the rural distress drama of Indian politicians and urban economists. The solution to this is seen as rewarding those states which come out with agrarian focussed programmes, agro climatic and local rural growth strategies, with possible budgetary support.

Surprisingly, the music of the old song of ushering in a Second Green Revolution, futures trading in commodities markets, contract farming, agro processing Special Export Zones, seems to have been lost in the wake of Vidarbha and Uttar Pradesh debacles.

He has stated "I would only like to emphasise that whatever strategies we choose to adopt must deliver some results in the short and medium term, so that tangible benefits are visible - to farmers, consumers and the rural economy as a whole.
This is important if we have to avert any crisis in the agrarian sector and fulfil the needs of a growing economy."
All the king's horses and all the kings men, couldn't put Humpty together again ... He directed the Planning Commission to come up with a major programme to enhance central support to those states that prepare localised plans.

This obviously means he is still not prepared to ask his heavy weight Cricket Minister to choose between Cricket, Food Imports or solving Agrarian Distress in his home state of Maharashtra.

The poor Finance Minister is keeping his cards close to his chest and will surely resist tooth and nail, attempts at further central aid to states because he himself knows the dubious record of states in preparing sensitive rural programmes of integrated development, as also knowing that further expansion of agricultural land exploitation is not feasible. Also known as the milking the dry cow therapy.
But the problem is who will be brave enougfh to bell the cat ?

Congress, Inflation, Cricket and Wheat Buffer Stocks

Congress, Inflation, Cricket and Wheat Buffer Stocks :
Keeping Indian economists busy with supply side constraints, while Cricket Minister is importing to his heart's content and creating a messy situation for Chidambaram.
Subsides for sugar exporters and love for wheat importers - Googly bowling by Indian Cricket Minister :
For the second year in the running, India is importing wheat. Last year the government justified imports on account of lower production. This year it is being justified in the name of higher prices for farmers.

In order to meet the buffer stock requirements, the government has decided to import up to 50 lakh tonnes of wheat this year. Thanks to the government’s policies, from a wheat surplus nation, India today has been reduced to the world’s largest importer of wheat. An article on the various reasons used by Indian Cricket Minister, to justify his love for imports of wheat into India from all over the world.

Here is article analyzing the Cricket Minister's love for wheat imports from all corners of the earth.
Maybe eating lots of imported wheat from all corners of the earth, courtesy the Indian Cricket Minister, all the Punjab da puttars will win the next Cricket World Cup for India..

Wheat Imports : Subverting Procurement, Cheating Farmers - Bhaskar Goswami

For the second year in the running, India is importing wheat. Last year the government justified imports on account of lower production. This year it is being justified in the name of higher prices for farmers.

In order to meet the buffer stock requirements, the government has decided to import up to 50 lakh tonnes of wheat this year. Thanks to the government’s policies, from a wheat surplus nation, India today has been reduced to the world’s largest importer of wheat.

Alarm bells began ringing in early March when, despite predictions of a bumper wheat harvest in India, the US Wheat Associates - a trade body funded by the federal government and US wheat producers - said India will import up to 30 lakh tonnes of wheat this year. Well, not only has the government followed this diktat, but has revised this estimate by 20 lakh tonnes more as a small favour to multinational grain corporations.

The rush to go for imports right now is questionable. With an additional 18 lakh hectares under wheat, the production has increased by forty lakh tonnes. Since the peak wheat procurement season is during the second half of May, there is ample time left for the government to meet its procurement target of 151 lakh tonnes. On 1st May, the Food Secretary said that stocks are adequate to last till January 2008. On 5th May, the Food and Agriculture Minister, Sharad Pawar announced, “Last year, the buffer stock position was only two million tonne, this time it is 4.5 million tonne. That is why I am quite comfortable about the buffer stock.”

The Minister justified the move to import wheat by adding, “However, I want to build up stock for the next year”. This, when the wheat produced is adequate to meet the country’s requirements and there is no shortage in the buffer stock. Wheat for the next season is yet to be planted but the government is apprehensive of a bad crop next year!

"If the farmer is getting a better price, as Agriculture Minister I am the happiest person. However, as a Food Minister, if I face any problem, I will import," said Pawar. He was referring to farmers getting a better price by selling to private companies thereby leaving little for the government to pick up.
This is a replay of the 2006 argument, when the Food Corporation of India (FCI) failed miserably to meet its procurement target. By offering a lower price to farmers, the government made out a case for imports, which translated to a windfall of Rs. 5,100 crores to grain corporations like the Australian Wheat Board, Glencore, Toepfer, Cargill, etc.

This year, the procurement is worse than what it was last year. By end of April, even half of the procurement target was not met, and a shortfall of 25 lakh tonnes by the end of the procurement season is possible. This is because the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs. 850 per quintal offered by the government is much lower than the prevailing market rate of over Rs. 1,000. Naturally, bulk of the wheat is being cornered by the private sector. As expected, the gains to grain corporations this year will also be much higher than 2006. Lack of rainfall in Europe, Australia and South Africa has affected wheat production and depressed world wheat stocks to their lowest in the last 25 years. Wheat from Ukraine and Russia will hit markets only by August, while Pakistan is still a small exporter. Major wheat exporter, Argentina, has banned wheat export to control domestic prices.

The only players left are the US and Canada, where the price of wheat is already up by $40 per tonne over last year. Given the global supply crunch, announcement of imports by India will push the price through the roof, as it happened last year. While last year India paid around $207 per tonne of wheat (approximately Rs. 930 per quintal), the cost this year is likely to be upwards of $300 per tonne (or Rs. 1,200 per quintal at the current exchange rate), a rich bonus for corporations.

Instead of doling out Rs. 6,000 crores to corporations for importing 50 lakh tonnes of wheat, a hike in the MSP would have fetched an even higher price to farmers than what they are receiving from private companies and also helped FCI meet the procurement target. But then that never was the intent.
By paying a premium to grain corporations and denying a fair price to our farmers, the government has sent a clear message to farmers: they should no longer expect a guaranteed price for what they produce.

Notwithstanding the government’s claims, in reality it is building a case to dismantle the price support and procurement mechanism which are designed to protect farmers from price volatility and the poor from starvation. The Economic Survey 2005-06 states “Market for farm output continues to depend heavily on expensive government procurement and distribution systems. A shift from the current MSP and public procurement system and developing alternative product markets are essential for crop diversification and broad-based agricultural development”.

The government is following this dictum. By deliberately offering a lower MSP and importing at higher costs, the system is being covertly scrapped. The Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee Act has been amended to allow private agencies to directly procure food grains from farmers. The amended Essential Commodities Act allows storage and movement of food grains. Agriculture commodities can be traded in futures markets involving speculation. No wonder multinational grain firms are cornering bulk of the food grains produced across the country.

There is more. As part of the larger game plan to shut down the FCI, the government is also toying with the idea of issuing food stamps to the Below Poverty Line families, which will reduce the food subsidy bill. There is another proposal to replace the Public Distribution System (PDS) with direct cash payments to poor families.

To reduce storage costs, the government is considering playing in the futures market in the months when it needs food grains for running the PDS - there would be no need for an MSP in such a case. The warehousing system is also being privatized. Recommendations of the consultancy firm McKinsey hired by the Food Ministry are already being implemented and FCI’s capital costs have been reduced, workforce slashed, minimum buffer stock for rice lowered, and private companies engaged in procurement.

From all this, it is clear that instead of fixing the problems at FCI, the government has decided to fix the blame on FCI and close it down. That there are major problems with the functioning of the FCI is undeniable. However, dismantling it will amount to another safety net for farmers as well as the poor, who depend on the PDS, going down. This, of course, suits the government. After all, food subsidy for the poor costs the exchequer Rs 23,986 crores during 2006-07.

The Indian State has a history of subverting procurement and price support mechanisms. Back in 2002, dairy cooperatives were on the brink of being wiped out courtesy dumping by the developed countries, which was facilitated by the State. In case of cotton, the Maharashtra government subverted the monopoly cotton procurement scheme and today the price being paid to cotton farmers is a fraction of what they received earlier. Similarly, Marketfed in Kerala, which procures pepper from farmers, is facing subversion. The cases of cardamom, coconut, cashew – in fact, almost all agri-commodities – have a common thread running through them: deliberate subversion of procurement and manipulation of support price.

The intentions of the government are quite clear – deny farmers a higher price for their produce and dismantle the price support and procurement machinery. While farmers may presently be getting a higher price by selling wheat to private players, the euphoria is unlikely to last long.
In the absence of MSP and procurement by government, there are very high chances of concentration of agri-business corporations. Once this cartel takes over, they will dictate the price to Indian farmers. With imports being made a norm, the future of wheat farmers is indeed bleak.
It is time to play a requiem for India’s wheat revolution.

Bhaskar Goswami Blog - http://bhaskargoswami.blogspot.com/

Four Solid Pillars of Farm Exit Policy

The Four solid pillars of Congress supervised modern Indian Farm Exit Policy (IFEP):

1. Farm Debt
2. Dismantling Food Security and Basic Procurement Policies of Green Revolution
3. Regulatory Incompetence
4. Deliberate Political Insensitivity via Denial, Subterfuge, Fraud, Diversion

BundelKhand and Mulayam

The self immolation bid by a farmer, in a Mulayam Singh, show of support rally, in the drought prone areas of Bundelkhand, brings the focus on the UP State government and its attempts at thwarting agrarian related suicides in Uttar Pradesh and presenting Uttar Pradesh as an agricultural paradise for Indian farmers, as opposed to the Congress ruled states like Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.
While the bureaucrats in Congress ruled states are being pressed in to fire fighting tasks in various media appearances, as analysts who advise farmers on economics and structural issues like high cost cultivation practices in non irrigated areas of India, it is now the turn of bureaucrats in Mulayam Singh ruled state of Uttar Pradesh to deny agrarian distress and suicides.

At an electoral rally in Mahoba, to save his own beleagured future in Lucknow, Shri Mulayam Singh has declared, "Not a single farmer has committed suicide in UP during my regime and those making such claims, are opposition-sponsored agents trying to tarnish the government image."
Consequently the District Magistrate of Mahoba, Sameer Verma, has been persuaded to don the role of a mental health expert, and dole out "insanity certificates" to suicidal farmers.
Calling the farmer a "sirfira", and his immolation bid by fire, in the presence of Mulayam Singh as totally unwarranted and unjustified, he promptly issued an unfit mental health certificate to the farmer Maniram.
It really is amazing, what impossible tasks and roles Indian bureaucrats, are being forced to undertake, as they attempt to do media firefighting, in the face of the Farm Exit policy unleashed by the Congress government in Delhi and Mumbai.

One Dr Sudhir Goyal is doling out prescriptions, on why high cost cotton cultivation is unsuitable in Vidarbha, another Sameer Verma is issuing mental insanity certificates in Mahoba, Bundelkhand in Uttar Pradesh, and extolling the virtues of a farmer friendly regime in Uttar Pradesh, and the efforts of district administrations in preventing farmers from debt recovery operations and land seizures.
All this, while the Sensex Minister and the Cricket Minister, are busy watching the bears and bulls, and the return to form of Saurav Ganguly in Indian cricket team, and doling out vacated farm land tracts for Special Export Zones, under various Farmlands Grab Acts (FGA's).

Vidarbha and Sharad Pawar

That the credit of architecting the farm exit policy for Vidarbha cotton farmers would decisively go to Shri Sharad Pawar was surely difficult to predict. However it now seems that one of the most discredited Agriculture Ministers of India should belong to Maharashtra is a comment on the rapid rise in politics, of Shri Pawar from the days of the sugarcane cooperatives of Western Maharashtra.

The sugarcane cooperatives of Western Maharashtra have been the traditional power brokers in Mumbai, and often at the expense of Vidarbha interests.

The media images of Vidarbha, show that each additional suicide in Vidarbha is seen as an albatross hanging on the neck of Shri Pawar. Even the mistakes committed by other ministers, somehow get blamed upon Shri Pawar.

The political fallout of his image in Vidarbha, as a cricket glory seeking and tough talking, politically shrewd, Agriculture Minister of India, in stark contrast to the mockery of Indian farm suicides going on unabated under his jurisdiction, will be deep standing.

Maybe it will require consummate political manouevres to retain his clout in Vidarbha after the widespread dismay, his name and image arouses amongst the cotton farmers of Maharashtra.
The Congress political bigwigs may have some reasons for keeping silent. However, how many days before the murmurs of discontent and political stock taking begins in Congress, remains to be seen. Vidarbha is electorally very important for Congress.

Vidarbha is surely an important electoral battle ground and a bell weather for Congress central government prospects, not just the state prospects. If Congress begins to get discredited here, in rural areas, for reasons of apathy to suicidal farmers, due to the cricketing pursuits of Shri Pawar and his defense of pesticide levels in Indian mother's milk, it will mean sweeping changes in the way Agriculture Ministry, and how it is seen in terms of relative political weight in Indian political circles.

Shri Sharad Pawar is of course, no Chaudhary Charan Singh though he may sometimes try to put on that mantle.

I have often pointed out that there is an inherent contradiction in the roles assigned to Shri Pawar as Agriculture Minister and as Food Minister. At some point this contradiction will need to be decisively resolved within Congress at the highest levels, before India submits to European and American pressures on WTO.

I am amazed at the amount of spontaneous distrust, that Shri Sharad Pawar evokes amongst Vidarbha farmers, and yet manages to cling to his ministry as an important Central government constituent and political heavy weight.

Political Response to Farm Exit Policy of Congress

That a massive economic restructuring process is underway in India is no more in doubt. What is interesting, is that the major economists and think tanks are busy with issues of :
1. Indian GDP
2. Competition strategies to attract some leftover foreign investment away from China, to India.
3. How urban India can best position itself to benefit from globalization and WTO.

However, given the sheer size of Indian farm dependant population, this economic restructuring is naturally accompanied by large scale stresses and deep fissures, on Indian social structures and long term food security policies.
Entire decades of food security infrastructure planning and institutions are being dismantled within ministries, without open debate.

Mrs Sonia Gandhi will of course continue to excercise an unshakeable mental and psychological hold on some of the most deprived of Indian voters. However, whether the charm of the sacrificing daughter in law, will survive the kick on the food plate, remains to be seen.

Some of these stresses will surely impact the electoral politics of India.
However, apart from Mamta Bannerjee and Mohan Dharia, hardly any Indian politicians seem to be aware of the electoral impact of these urban led, strategies for economic growth. Maybe Shri Naidu from Andhra Pradesh, can head a think tank within Congress, to warn them of the impending impact of Shining India and Second Green Revolution electoral campaigns.
Certainly not Shri Sharad Pawar and Shri Manmohan Singh, though I feel Shri Kamal Nath does know what impact, this is all going to have on Congress prospects in the next elections.

The Indian media is now regularly, but still cautiously, depending on the views of the editors, covering the stories of Indian farm suicides, while Shri Sharad Pawar cursorily reads out the figures in Parliament and defends wheat imports from Australia and the "acceptable levels of pesticides" in what Indians drink and what mothers milk contains.

But apart from the cursory reading of the suicide figures, there is still no attempt to come to grips with the issue of undeclared farm exit policy of Congress.
Suicide figures are just figures to be read out in the Parliament. They hide the faces and the stories, of the farmers and the families of the suicidal farmers.

The US Secretary of Agriculture also, deems it fit and appropriate, to compare the suicides of Indian farmers with the much smaller number of farmer suicides in United States, in the Indian capital, amongst the friends of Indian commerce federations, while trying to drum up support for the re-energized WTO and supposedly, still a Doha Round. Though of course, Europe and America look at Doha Round only as an attempt to revive WTO, and in reality, have more significant and pressing issues they would like discussed under the umbrella of WTO.

Ask the suicidal Indian farmers, if they are optimistic to the same degree, about the success of Doha Round, and you are greeted with blank stares. They are already facing Doha on a daily basis in their homes.
That some people are getting ready to foist one more Doha, this time done better, hardly elates the Indian farmers.

Four Pillars of Indian Farm Exit Policy

Much fuss is being made in India, of the letter written by the UPA chairperson, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, to Shri Manmohan Singh regarding the major news of Walmart entering India in partnership with Indian industrialists without a footprint in retail.

The "language of the open letter", billed of course as only the third major intevention of Mrs Gandhi in issues of governance, of course, shows that Mrs Gandhi has all along been in the dark, about this major reorganization of retail sector in India, being considered by the Agriculture and Commerce ministries, with the green signal from Prime Minister, under the garb of inviting investments into Indian agriculture and propelling the Second Green Revolution in India.

Of course, the issue of on whose weak backs, the second Green Revolution will play itself out, is a moot question. One best answered - by a much delayed and avoided like the cow dung of villages - visit to farmer organizations in Vidarbha and Indian killing fields by the masters of Indian economic tiger.

And why, not afterall, all serious economists are busy churning out the percentage figures of Indian GDP, and wondering if it will hit double figures.

Of course, different people will have different perceptions about the knowledge or ignorance of Mrs Gandhi, about the entry, of American and European major retailers into India, either directly, or on the backs of a facilitating joint venture entity with Indian non retail players, in the absence of WTO globally binding agreements.

Food Retail is the big sunrise sector in India, and promises major electoral battles, in the coming years, as masses of populations, in Indian cities and villages are displaced and forced into unplanned economic restructuring of epic proportions.

Like the Roman Nero, who fiddled while Rome burned, or the Shatranj ke Khiladi of Awadh, even though the Communists are busy saving the navratnas, and prefer to ignore the issues of eviction of sharecroppers from Bengal farmlands, and make their routine "oh, this is not right", exclamations in New Delhi.

Let us for the while, believe with all due innocence, that Mrs Gandhi has no role at all to play in the decisions regarding entry of single brand global majors into Indian food sector.

What I wish to draw attention to, is the language of the letter from Mrs Gandhi.
Mrs Gandhi writes "...I have received suggestions from many quarters, about the desirability to first study, the possible impact, of transnational, super markets on livelihood security, of those engaged in small scale operations. I thought I would convey this to you so that, you may consider having the relevant issues properly examined before further decisions are taken..."

Although WalMart has entered the wholesale sector, which allows 100 per cent FDI, we all know from the Tesco strategy, of entering the Chinese food retail market, via a joint venture Ting Hsin, to understand and influence local agricultural practices, that this is the means of actually directly pegging its own brand in the Indian retail space.
We all know that no global major, wants to enter the Chinese or Indian markets, only for the wholesale pie.
It is the retail pie that all global majors and the Indian new entrants like Reliance are after, let us be under no illusions about this.

It seems that with her European lineage, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, well understands, what the Europeans and Americans want from India and are drumming up pressure for.
This is a major reversing of the national food security generated by the agriculture policies of her mother in law, Mrs Indira Gandhi.

Major industrial economies, after years of low cost Chinese inputs, are now beginning to feel the impact of incipient inflation in their local economies and stagnating growth in the consumer markets.
Mrs Gandhi is believed to have asked for the details of the Bharti WalMart contract and wants top ministries to gauge its impact on small-scale retailers.
Top ministries ?
Ah, have a guess, what are these "top ministries" ? Any guesses ? It is those of Shri Sharad Pawar, Mr Chidambaram and Shri Kamal Nath.
These are the movers and shakers aka, top ministries.

In this context, I also want to point out that Mrs Gandhi has raised this issue only in the context of the small traders. Are not the Indian farmers also to be included in the blessings that are about to be coming the way of small traders, after this intervention of Mrs Sonia Gandhi in this most important of Indian economic developments since the Green Revolution ?
Watch this blog for more on what are the Four Pillars of the undeclared Indian Farm Exit Policy.